From Bushehr to the Bomb
Wall Street Journal
December 5, 2012
Last Sunday marked the 70th anniversary of the world's first controlled nuclear reaction, which took place under the bleachers of the old Stagg Field at the University of Chicago. Also last Sunday, the Journal reported that the U.S. had stepped up its spying on Iran's nuclear reactor at Bushehr after Iran had unexpectedly removed fuel rods containing between 22 and 220 pounds of weapons-grade plutonium.
The distance between civilian nuclear power and an atomic weapon, as the early nuclear pioneers understood, can be short. Now the Obama Administration is being forced to learn that lesson all over again.
For years, U.S. officials have insisted that the Russian-built reactor at Bushehr posed a negligible proliferation risk. Instead, they concentrated nearly all their attention on Iran's efforts to enrich uranium. At the same time, the U.S. bought Iran's argument that the country was within its legal rights to operate "peaceful" facilities such as Bushehr, never mind the question of why an oil-rich state would spend billions on a reactor it didn't need.
Far be it for us to suggest the world should be less alarmed by the strides Iran has made in enriching uranium—close to eight tons to reactor-grade level of 5%, along with 238 kilos to a near-bomb grade level of 20%, according to a report last month by the International Atomic Energy Agency. With some additional enrichment, those quantities suffice for probably six bombs.
But uranium is not the only route to a bomb. There's also plutonium, and Iran has long been at work on a plutonium-breeding heavy-water reactor in the city of Arak. The Iranians say the reactor is solely for research, yet IAEA inspectors have not been given access to the plant since August 2011.
Then there's Bushehr. Under the terms of Iran's agreement with Russia's State Atomic Power Corporation, or Rusatom, Iran is supposed to return all of the reactor's spent fuel rods to Russia for storage. Now it transpires that Iran removed the fuel rods in October, a mere two months after the reactor became fully operational. Iran claims the fuel rods have since been returned to the reactor core, though we are not aware of any independent corroboration of that claim.
The official reason for the transfer of the fuel was a safety test, and Rusatom has denied a report that the move was prompted by the discovery of loose bolts that could have caused a major accident. But as the Journal suggested in its story, the transfer could also have been a test run for the Iranians should they decide to reprocess those rods into weapons-grade plutonium. As many as 24 Nagasaki-type bombs could be produced with 220 pounds of plutonium.
So much, then, for the notion that the Bushehr reactor is "proliferation resistant," an idea that largely boils down to the fact that IAEA inspectors are routinely at the site. Yet legally the IAEA is only permitted to inspect Bushehr once every 90 days, and Iran has forbidden the agency from installing video cameras with near-real time surveillance capacity.
That means Iran could contrive an excuse to move the fuel rods without the agency knowing about it in time. And while Western intelligence agencies do not believe Iran has a reprocessing capability, experts tell us that the rapid extraction of weapons-usable plutonium from spent fuel rods is a straightforward process that can be performed in a fairly small (and easily secreted) space.
All of which goes to show that, contrary to Joe Biden's cavalier assurances during his debate with Paul Ryan that the U.S. would have adequate foreknowledge of any Iranian plans to build a bomb, U.S. intelligence on Iran's nuclear capabilities remains fragmentary at best. At the same time, Iran is increasing the number of routes it can take to race toward a bomb.
These columns have been warning of the proliferation risk posed by Bushehr since May 2002. As always with Iran's nuclear ambitions, the worst suspicions come true.
