Details in Military Notes Led to Shift on Iran, U.S. Says
American intelligence agencies reversed their view about the status of Iran’s nuclear weapons program after they obtained notes last summer from the deliberations of Iranian military officials involved in the weapons development program, senior intelligence and government officials said on Wednesday.
NIE: An Abrupt About-Face
So, if it is true that Dr. Fingar played a leading role in crafting this latest NIE, then we are left with serious questions:
- Why did your opinion change so drastically in just four months time?
- Is the new intelligence or analysis really that good? Is it good enough to overturn your previous assessments? Or, has it never really been good enough to make a definitive assessment at all?
- Did your political or ideological leanings, or your policy preferences, or those of your colleagues, influence your opinion in any way?
The CIA's flip-flop on Iran is hardly reassuring.
As recently as 2005, the consensus estimate of our spooks was that "Iran currently is determined to develop nuclear weapons" and do so "despite its international obligations and international pressure." This was a "high confidence" judgment. The new NIE says Iran abandoned its nuclear program in 2003 "in response to increasing international scrutiny." This too is a "high confidence" conclusion. One of the two conclusions is wrong, and casts considerable doubt on the entire process by which these "estimates"--the consensus of 16 intelligence bureaucracies--are conducted and accorded gospel status.
5 comments:
The reversal can provide plausible deniability to the US in the event of an Israli move to disable the reactors. Perhaps the Russians see the same thing and in turn interpret events as moving swiftly as like the 'quiet that comes before a storm'.
Despite Israel slapping Syria down on that nuke plant site.. does anyone think Israel would, very likely, start an all-out war with Iran via pre-emptive strike on their nuclear facilities?
Even though Iraq is a nice buffer between the 2 countries.. and Iran would have to go through Iraq.. and American troops, put troops in Israel.. but maybe thats the goal.. its some crazy business out there nowadays.
err... I'll revise that last paragraph some.
Even though Iraq is a nice buffer between the 2 countries.. and Iran would have to go through Iraq- and American troops- to put Iranian troops on Israel's property... but maybe thats the goal.. etc.
And beyond all that... Would the Iraqi government grant Israel permission to fly through its airspace to hit Iran?
Wow.. waltzing on eggshells over there!
Oh.. and Michael Mickey at RaptureAlert is taking an indefinate break from his sites.
bummer.
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